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Foreign Direct Investment and Gross Fixed Capital Formation in Nigeria: Evidence From Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Modelling

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Abstract

This study was designed to investigate the long run and short run implications of foreign direct investment inflow on growth in gross fixed capital formation in Nigeria from 1981 to 2022. Other variables considered germane to the study were also employed to determine their implications on GFCF and to further ensure robust results. Data employed for analysis were obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin published in 2023. Econometric procedure adopted for investigation was the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag modeling. The result of the long run coefficient signifies that foreign direct investment negatively related with gross fixed capital formation. However, the results of the short run dynamics between foreign direct investment and gross fixed capital formation are incompatible. While FDI in the contemporaneous period impeded growth in capital formation, nevertheless, past values of FDI in one year lag significantly supported growth in gross fixed capital formation. Therefore, we strongly suggested that a feasible institutional framework be put in place to objectively monitor and allocate foreign direct investments to preferred sectors of the economy germane and strategic to the growth of capital formation in Nigeria.


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